Will there be a boom? – Capitalism, cycles, and crises

Date: Saturday 5th November
Time: 13:15 - 15:00
Location: Sarah Fell
Speaker: James Kilby

The global economy has been down and up like a yo-yo over the past 18 months, with production stuttering in the face of the coronavirus crisis. Today, some bourgeois commentators optimistically talk about a dynamic rebound, while others warn of overheating, inflation, and an impending crash.

Beneath this uncertainty and volatility, however, all the key economic indicators reveal that the system is deeply sick. The period ahead will not be one of vigorous boom and upswing, but of stagnation and decline.

Leon Trotsky addressed this question 100 years ago, in discussing the idea of the ‘curve of capitalist development’ – a concept that he put forward in contrast to both Kondratiev’s mechanical theory of ‘long waves’ and Schumpeter’s bourgeois explanation of boom and slump through ‘creative destruction’.

Recommended reading: Marxism and the theory of 'Long Waves'

Recommended watching: Marxist Economics